If the European Union does not respect the migrant deal with Turkey, the Balkan will be under threat of a 2 million migrant surge. The situation from 2 months ago when thousands of migrants were arriving from the Aegean Sea into Greece, and from there into Macedonia, might occur again this summer or early fall, humanitarians familiar with the circumstances predict.
According to them, Macedonia must be prepared for such a scenario in terms of accommodation capacities in both reception centers in Gevgelija and Tabanovce, where there is a small number of stranded migrants after the shutdown of the Balkan route.
"Unless Turkey and the EU come to terms, a second wave of migrants and refugees is inevitable", Jasmin Rexhepi from NGO Legis said.
For a long time now, Turkey has been unhappy with how the deal with the EU has been working out. The deal was supposed to stop the migrant inflow to western European countries.
The problems are mostly in relation to the funds Ankara has been receiving from the EU, which have been arriving quite late. Another problem is the relocation of the refugees in EU countries.
So far, only about a 100 refugees have left Turkey for the EU, which is a minimal number. European countries are not keen on admitting refugees and find ways to avoid the obligation. This has angered Turkish authorities, who threatened that they will let through Syrian, Afghani and Iraqi refugees into Greece.
It is well known that almost all of the EU countries, such as Austria, Hungary, Croatia and Slovenia made it clear that they will not be admitting any more refugees, which means that Macedonia and Serbia will again bear the whole refugee and migrant burden, since Greece will want to quickly get rid of them.